Risk Prediction for Sudden Cardiac Death in the General Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Objective: Identification of SCD risk is important in the general population from a public health perspective. The objective is to summarize and appraise the available prediction models for the risk of SCD among the general population. Methods: Data were obtained searching six electronic databases and reporting prediction models of SCD risk in the general population. Studies with duplicate cohorts and missing information were excluded from the meta-analysis. Results: Out of 8,407 studies identified, fifteen studies were included in the systematic review, while five studies were included in the meta-analysis. The Cox proportional hazards model was used in thirteen studies (96.67%). Study locations were limited to Europe and the United States. Our pooled meta-analyses included four predictors: diabetes mellitus (ES = 2.69, 95%CI: 1.93, 3.76), QRS duration (ES = 1.16, 95%CI: 1.06, 1.26), spatial QRS-T angle (ES = 1.46, 95%CI: 1.27, 1.69) and factional shortening (ES = 1.37, 95%CI: 1.15, 1.64). Conclusion: Risk prediction model may be useful as an adjunct for risk stratification strategies for SCD in the general population. Further studies among people except for white participants and more accessible factors are necessary to explore.

Epidemic intelligence in Europe: a user needs perspective to foster innovation in digital health surveillance.

BACKGROUND: European epidemic intelligence (EI) systems receive vast amounts of information and data on disease outbreaks and potential health threats. The quantity and variety of available data sources for EI, as well as the available methods to manage and analyse these data sources, are constantly increasing. Our aim was to identify the difficulties encountered in this context and which innovations, according to EI practitioners, could improve the detection, monitoring and analysis of disease outbreaks and the emergence of new pathogens. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study to identify the need for innovation expressed by 33 EI practitioners of national public health and animal health agencies in five European countries and at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). We adopted a stepwise approach to identify the EI stakeholders, to understand the problems they faced concerning their EI activities, and to validate and further define with practitioners the problems to address and the most adapted solutions to their work conditions. We characterized their EI activities, professional logics, and desired changes in their activities using NvivoⓇ software. RESULTS: Our analysis highlights that EI practitioners wished to collectively review their EI strategy to enhance their preparedness for emerging infectious diseases, adapt their routines to manage an increasing amount of data and have methodological support for cross-sectoral analysis. Practitioners were in demand of timely, validated and standardized data acquisition processes by text mining of various sources; better validated dataflows respecting the data protection rules; and more interoperable data with homogeneous quality levels and standardized covariate sets for epidemiological assessments of national EI. The set of solutions identified to facilitate risk detection and risk assessment included visualization, text mining, and predefined analytical tools combined with methodological guidance. Practitioners also highlighted their preference for partial rather than full automation of analyses to maintain control over the data and inputs and to adapt parameters to versatile objectives and characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that the set of solutions needed by practitioners had to be based on holistic and integrated approaches for monitoring zoonosis and antimicrobial resistance and on harmonization between agencies and sectors while maintaining flexibility in the choice of tools and methods. The technical requirements should be defined in detail by iterative exchanges with EI practitioners and decision-makers.

Sex differences in cognitive decline among middle-aged and older adults: a cohort study in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies on sex differences in cognitive decline provide inconsistent findings, with many European countries being underrepresented. We determined the association between sex and cognitive decline in a sample of Europeans and explored differences across birth cohorts and regions. METHODS: Participants 50+ years old enrolled in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe had their cognition measured by tests of immediate recall, delayed recall and verbal fluency biennially up to 17 years of follow-up (median 6, interquartile range 3-9 years). We used linear mixed-effects models to assess the relationship between sex and the rate of cognitive decline, adjusting for sociodemographic and health-related characteristics. RESULTS: Of 66,670 participants (mean baseline age 63.5 ± standard deviation 9.4), 55% were female. Males and females had similar rates of decline in the whole sample in immediate recall (beta for interaction sex × time B = 0.002, 95% CI -0.001 to 0.006), delayed recall (B = 0.000, 95% CI -0.004 to 0.004), and verbal fluency (B = 0.008, 95% CI -0.005 to 0.020). Females born before World War II had a faster rate of decline in immediate recall and delayed recall compared to males, while females born during or after World War II had a slower rate of decline in immediate recall. Females in Central and Eastern Europe had a slower rate of cognitive decline in delayed recall compared to males. DISCUSSION: Our study does not provide strong evidence of sex differences in cognitive decline among older Europeans. However, we identified heterogeneity across birth cohorts and regions.

Contribution of host species and pathogen clade to snake fungal disease hotspots in Europe.

Infectious diseases are influenced by interactions between host and pathogen, and the number of infected hosts is rarely homogenous across the landscape. Areas with elevated pathogen prevalence can maintain a high force of infection and may indicate areas with disease impacts on host populations. However, isolating the ecological processes that result in increases in infection prevalence and intensity remains a challenge. Here we elucidate the contribution of pathogen clade and host species in disease hotspots caused by Ophidiomyces ophidiicola, the pathogen responsible for snake fungal disease, in 21 species of snakes infected with multiple pathogen strains across 10 countries in Europe. We found isolated areas of disease hotspots in a landscape where infections were otherwise low. O. ophidiicola clade had important effects on transmission, and areas with multiple pathogen clades had higher host infection prevalence. Snake species further influenced infection, with most positive detections coming from species within the Natrix genus. Our results suggest that both host and pathogen identity are essential components contributing to increased pathogen prevalence.

Comorbid physical health burden of serious mental health disorders in 32 European countries.

BACKGROUND: Mental health disorders (MHDs) are associated with physical health disparities, but underlying excess risk and health burden have not yet been comprehensively assessed. OBJECTIVE: To assess the burden of comorbid physical health conditions (PHCs) across serious MHDs in Europe. METHODS: We estimated the relative prevalence risk of PHCs associated with alcohol use disorders (AUD), bipolar disorder (BD), depressive disorders (DD) and schizophrenia (SZ) across working-age populations of 32 European countries in 2019 based on a targeted literature review. Excess physical health burden was modelled using population-attributable fractions and country-level prevalence data. FINDINGS: We screened 10 960 studies, of which 41 were deemed eligible, with a total sample size of over 18 million persons. Relative prevalence of PHCs was reported in 54%, 20%, 15%, 5% and 7% of studies, respectively, for SZ, DD, BD, AUD or mixed. Significant relative risk estimates ranged from 1.44 to 3.66 for BD, from 1.43 to 2.21 for DD, from 0.81 to 1.97 for SZ and 3.31 for AUD. Excess physical health burden ranged between 27% and 67% of the total, corresponding to 84 million (AUD), 67 million (BD), 66 million (DD) and 5 million (SZ) PHC diagnoses in Europe. A 1% reduction in excess risk assuming causal inference could result in two million fewer PHCs across investigated MHDs. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first comprehensive study of the physical health burden of serious MHDs in Europe. The methods allow for updates, refinement and extension to other MHDs or geographical areas. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: The results indicate potential population health benefits achievable through more integrated mental and physical healthcare and prevention approaches.

Excess mortality in Europe coincides with peaks of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), November 2023 to February 2024.

Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95% CI:  91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.

Alternative hosts of Leishmania infantum: a neglected parasite in Europe.

Multi-host pathogens that infect various animal species and humans are considered of great importance for public and animal health. Leishmania spp. parasites are a characteristic example of such pathogens. Although leishmaniosis in humans is endemic for about 100 countries around the world it is classified as a neglected tropical disease. There are three main forms of leishmaniosis in humans: cutaneous (CL), visceral (VL) and mucocutaneous leishmaniosis (MCL). Each year, about 30,000 new cases of VL and more than 1 million new cases of CL are recorded. In Europe L. infantum is the dominant species with dogs being reservoir hosts. Apart from dogs, infection has been recorded in various animals, which suggests that other species could play a role in the maintenance of the parasite in nature. Herein we provide an in-depth review of the literature with respect to studies that deal with Leishmania infantum infections in domestic and wild animal species in Europe. Given the fact that domesticated and wild animals could contribute to the incidences of leishmaniosis in humans, the aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review which could potentially be used for the development of measures when it comes to the control of the Leishmania infantum parasite.

A longitudinal study of risk and protective factors for symptoms of adjustment disorder during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic caused multiple stressors that may lead to symptoms of adjustment disorder.Objective: We longitudinally examined relationships between risk and protective factors, pandemic-related stressors and symptoms of adjustment disorder during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as whether these relationships differed by the time of assessment.Method: The European Society for Traumatic Stress Studies (ESTSS) ADJUST Study included N = 15,169 participants aged 18 years and above. Participants from 11 European countries were recruited and screened three times at 6-month intervals from June 2020 to January 2022. Associations between risk and protective factors (e.g. gender), stressors (e.g. fear of infection), and symptoms of adjustment disorder (AjD, ADNM-8) and their interaction with time of assessment were examined using mixed linear regression.Results: The following predictors were significantly associated with higher AjD symptom levels: female or diverse gender; older age; pandemic-related news consumption >30 min a day; a current or previous mental health disorder; trauma exposure before or during the pandemic; a good, satisfactory or poor health status (vs. very good); burden related to governmental crisis management and communication; fear of infection; restricted social contact; work-related problems; restricted activity; and difficult housing conditions. The following predictors were associated with lower AjD levels: self-employment or retirement; working in healthcare; and face-to-face contact ≥ once a week with loved ones or friends. The effects of the following predictors on AjD symptoms differed by the time of assessment in the course of the pandemic: a current or previous mental disorder; burden related to governmental crisis management; income reduction; and a current trauma exposure.Conclusions: We identified risk factors and stressors predicting AjD symptom levels at different stages of the pandemic. For some predictors, the effects on mental health may change at different stages of a pandemic.

We longitudinally examined predictors of symptoms of adjustment disorder in 15,563 adults during the COVID-19 pandemic.We found stressors, risk, and protective factors predicting adjustment disorder symptom levels at different stages of the pandemic.For some predictors, the effects appear to change in different phases of a pandemic.

Assessment of using Google Trends for real-time monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks: a measles case study.

Measles remains a significant threat to children worldwide despite the availability of effective vaccines. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the situation by leading to the postponement of supplementary measles immunization activities. Along with this postponement, measles surveillance also deteriorated, with the lowest number of submitted specimens in over a decade. In this study, we focus on measles as a challenging case study due to its high vaccination coverage, which leads to smaller outbreaks and potentially weaker signals on Google Trends. Our research aimed to explore the feasibility of using Google Trends for real-time monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks. We evaluated the correlation between Google Trends searches and clinical case data using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient across 30 European countries and Japan. The results revealed that Google Trends was most suitable for monitoring acute disease outbreaks at the regional level in high-income countries, even when there are only a few weekly cases. For example, from 2017 to 2019, the Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.86 (p-value< 0.05) at the prefecture level for Okinawa, Japan, versus 0.33 (p-value< 0.05) at the national level for Japan. Furthermore, we found that the Pearson correlation coefficient may be more suitable than Spearman's rank correlation coefficient for evaluating the correlations between Google Trends search data and clinical case data. This study highlighted the potential of utilizing Google Trends as a valuable tool for timely public health interventions to respond to infectious disease outbreaks, even in the context of diseases with high vaccine coverage.

Melanoma epidemiology in Europe: what is new?

Every year in Europe over 150,000 new cases of melanoma are reported and over 25,000 lives are lost to this tumor. Incidence has been rising rapidly, faster than for any other cancer, and it is expected to continue to do so in most regions. Mortality also crept up, decades-long, with only few very recent exceptions. Thus, melanoma remains a public health problem that will not go away soon, nor easy. Some notable progress has been made in the last decade in the fight against this tumor. Registration and reporting for skin cancers improved across Europe. Incidence trends have begun to plateau or even to descend in younger age groups, in some countries, and there are encouraging signs that mortality might do the same, after the recent therapeutic breakthroughs. Survival rates are on average above 80% at 5 years for European patients, while diagnosis trends toward ever thinner tumors. Yet this progress is far from uniform across the continent, with many Southern-and Eastern European countries still struggling with sub-optimal cancer reporting, delayed access to innovative treatments, late detection and insufficient healthcare funding, that push survival rates down to harrowing 50%. This article aims to give an updated overview of the epidemiological situation of melanoma in Europe, highlighting the progress but also the persisting disparities in tumor burden, prognosis and access to quality cancer care and surveillance between European countries, as a reminder that relentless efforts must continue in order to tackle this aggressive tumor in an effective and equitable manner.

Daily Activities in European Children and Adolescents During COVID-19 School Closure: A Longitudinal Study Exploring Physical Activity, Use of Screens, and Sleep Patterns.

This longitudinal study aimed to analyze the evolution of patterns of daily activities (physical activity time, screen usage time, and sleep hours) in European youth during school closure due to the COVID-19 health crisis. Participants were 624 caregivers of children and adolescents aged 3-18 from Italy, Spain, and Portugal. Evaluations were online, and four time-points were considered: retrospective measurement of daily activities before confinement (T1), and two (T2), five (T3), and eight (T4) weeks after starting the lockdown. Generally accepted international guidelines on physical activity time, screen usage time, and hours of sleep by age group were used to determine whether the pattern might increase the risk for ill health or not. To estimate the evolution of daily activities, generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used. The percentage of children who practiced less than 60 min of daily exercise increased significantly from before home confinement (47.8%) to T2 (86.4%); it slightly decreased at T3 (79.8%), and remained stable at T4 (76.1%). The percentage of children who made excessive use of screens (according to their age group) significantly increased from T1 to T2 and remained stable and high in the rest of the evaluations. The percentage of children who slept fewer or more hours than recommended for their age group remained stable between T1 and T4, although there was a significant increase at T3. In general, results found unhealthier behaviors as confinement was extended. Results are discussed in order to find strategies for promoting healthy daily activities for future pandemics.

Effectiveness of XBB.1.5 Monovalent COVID-19 Vaccines During a Period of XBB.1.5 Dominance in EU/EEA Countries, October to November 2023: A VEBIS-EHR Network Study.

Using a common protocol across seven countries in the European Union/European Economic Area, we estimated XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalisation and death in booster-eligible ≥ 65-year-olds, during October-November 2023. We linked electronic records to construct retrospective cohorts and used Cox models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and derive VE. VE for COVID-19 hospitalisation and death was, respectively, 67% (95%CI: 58-74) and 67% (95%CI: 42-81) in 65- to 79-year-olds and 66% (95%CI: 57-73) and 72% (95%CI: 51-85) in ≥ 80-year-olds. Results indicate that periodic vaccination of individuals ≥ 65 years has an ongoing benefit and support current vaccination strategies in the EU/EEA.

US exceptionalism? International trends in midlife mortality.

BACKGROUND: Rising midlife mortality in the USA has raised concerns, particularly the increase in 'deaths of despair' (due to drugs, alcohol and suicide). Life expectancy is also stalling in other countries such as the UK, but how trends in midlife mortality are evolving outside the USA is less understood. We provide a synthesis of cause-specific mortality trends in midlife (25-64 years of age) for the USA and the UK as well as other high-income and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. METHODS: We document trends in midlife mortality in the USA, UK and a group of 13 high-income countries in Western Europe, Australia, Canada and Japan, as well as seven CEE countries from 1990 to 2019. We use annual mortality data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database to analyse sex- and age-specific (25-44, 45-54 and 55-64 years) age-standardized death rates across 15 major cause-of-death categories. RESULTS: US midlife mortality rates have worsened since 1990 for several causes of death including drug-related, alcohol-related, suicide, metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases, respiratory diseases and infectious/parasitic diseases. Deaths due to homicide, transport accidents and cardiovascular diseases have declined since 1990 but saw recent increases or stalling of improvements. Midlife mortality also increased in the UK for people aged 45-54 year and in Canada, Poland and Sweden among for those aged 25-44 years. CONCLUSIONS: The USA is increasingly falling behind not only high-income, but also CEE countries, some of which were heavily impacted by the post-socialist mortality crisis of the 1990s. Although levels of midlife mortality in the UK are substantially lower than those in the USA overall, there are signs that UK midlife mortality is worsening relative to that in Western Europe.

Performance of probable dementia classification in a European multi-country survey.

Feasibility constraints limit availability of validated cognitive assessments in observational studies. Algorithm-based identification of 'probable dementia' is thus needed, but no algorithm developed so far has been applied in the European context. The present study sought to explore the usefulness of the Langa-Weir (LW) algorithm to detect 'probable dementia' while accounting for country-level variation in prevalence and potential underreporting of dementia. Data from 56 622 respondents of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, 2017) aged 60 years and older with non-missing data were analyzed. Performance of LW was compared to a logistic regression, random forest and XGBoost classifier. Population-level 'probable dementia' prevalence was compared to estimates based on data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. As such, application of the prevalence-specific LW algorithm, based on recall and limitations in instrumental activities of daily living, reduced underreporting from 61.0 (95% CI, 53.3-68.7%) to 30.4% (95% CI, 19.3-41.4%), outperforming tested machine learning algorithms. Performance in other domains of health and cognitive function was similar for participants classified 'probable dementia' and those self-reporting physician-diagnosis of dementia. Dementia classification algorithms can be adapted to cross-national cohort surveys such as SHARE and help reduce underreporting of dementia with a minimal predictor set.

Agency in urgency and uncertainty. Vaccines and vaccination in European media discourses.

Although Covid-19 was not the first pandemic, it was unique in the scale and intensity with which societies responded. Countries reacted differently to the threat posed by the new virus. The public health crisis affected European societies in many ways. It also influenced the way the media portrayed vaccines and discussed factors related to vaccine hesitancy. Europeans differed in their risk perceptions, attitudes towards vaccines and vaccine uptake. In European countries, Covid-19-related discourses were at the centre of media attention for many months. This paper reports on a media analysis which revealed significant differences as well as some similarities in the media debates in different countries. The study focused on seven European countries and considered two dimensions of comparison: between the pre-Covid period and the beginning of the Covid pandemic period, and between countries. The rich methodological approach, including linguistics, semantic field analysis and discourse analysis of mainstream news media, allowed the authors to explore the set of meanings related to vaccination that might influence actors' agency. This approach led the authors to redefine vaccine hesitancy in terms of characteristics of the "society in the situation" rather than the psychological profile of individuals. We argue that vaccine hesitancy can be understood in terms of agency and temporality. This dilemma of choice that transforms the present into an irreversible past and must be taken in relation to an uncertain future, is particularly acute under the pressure of urgency and when someone's health is at stake. As such, it is linked to how vaccine meaning is co-produced within public discourses.

Genetic diversity of Cryptosporidium spp., Encephalitozoon spp. and Enterocytozoon bieneusi in feral and captive pigeons in Central Europe.

Cryptosporidium spp., Enterocytozoon bieneusi and Encephalitozoon spp. are the most common protistan parasites of vertebrates. The results show that pigeon populations in Central Europe are parasitised by different species of Cryptosporidium and genotypes of microsporidia of the genera Enterocytozoon and Encephalitozoon. A total of 634 and 306 faecal samples of captive and feral pigeons (Columba livia f. domestica) from 44 locations in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland were analysed for the presence of parasites by microscopy and PCR/sequence analysis of small subunit ribosomal RNA (18S rDNA), 60 kDa glycoprotein (gp60) and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) of SSU rDNA. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the presence of C. meleagridis, C. baileyi, C. parvum, C. andersoni, C. muris, C. galli and C. ornithophilus, E. hellem genotype 1A and 2B, E. cuniculi genotype I and II and E. bieneusi genotype Peru 6, CHN-F1, D, Peru 8, Type IV, ZY37, E, CHN4, SCF2 and WR4. Captive pigeons were significantly more frequently parasitised with screened parasite than feral pigeons. Cryptosporidium meleagridis IIIa and a new subtype IIIl have been described, the oocysts of which are not infectious to immunodeficient mice, whereas chickens are susceptible. This investigation demonstrates that pigeons can be hosts to numerous species, genotypes and subtypes of the studied parasites. Consequently, they represent a potential source of infection for both livestock and humans.